Here’s a staggering statistic worth noting: By 2030, up to 5 billion people are expected to be part of the global middle class, according to McKinsey Global Institute. For Illinois farmers, that means a rapidly growing base of potential customers who enjoy eating meat raised on feed made with soybeans.

“It is likely that Bennett’s law will prevail, regardless of current efforts to reverse the global protein transition and replace desirable animal proteins with manufactured plant-based foods,” writes researcher Adam Drewnowski of the Center for Public Health Nutrition at the University of Washington in a February 2024 article for the journal Current Developments in Nutrition.

Bennett’s law refers to the idea that as more people enter the middle class, they eat fewer starches and more high-quality protein from animals.

“It may take decades for LMIC [low- and middle-income countries] to reach the peak meat consumption that is currently the privilege of some countries that are farther along the economic scale,” Drewnowski continues. In particular, he predicts the global middle class to eat more chicken, pork and dairy.

Countries To Watch
Some regions such as Asia and Southeast Asia will assume big chunks of the middle=class pie. For example, China is expected to have up to 1.2 billion middle-class residents by 2027, according to a 2020 report from The Brookings Institution titled, “China’s Influence On The Global Middle Class.” That would represent about a quarter of all middle-class members globally.

Factor in India, and those two nations alone will command about two-thirds of the world’s middle class, a NASDAQ analysis notes.

Yet other regions will contribute impressive growth, as well. By 2030, Africa is expected to have 43 percent more middle-class households than it does today, while the Middle East is anticipated to see growth of 39 percent. Those data points from Visa Navigate, an insights division of Visa that analyzes trends across Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (CEMEA). These regions will also boast one in four of the world’s Gen Zers compared to the one in 10 who will live in North America.

“Simply put, it has the working people to support supply, and the households that will have new power to spend,” states Mohamed Bardastani, a Visa CEMEA Economist, in a Visa Navigate report. “This is a region with opportunity ahead of it–and it is poised to seize it.”

All of that increased growth will create opportunities for Illinois soybean farmers to meet demand while continuing to lead in addressing pressing needs for environmental stewardship.

“The scale of the expanding consumer class, while a driver for economic development, is going to increase demand for food, water and energy substantially in parallel, bringing resource and environment challenges in the long run,” cautions the European Commission. It has labeled global middle-class growth as a megatrend—”a long-term driving force that is observable now and will continue to have a global impact in years to come.”

Soybean Potential and Challenges
All that expansion of the world’s middle class is expected to bring good news for soybean producers.

By 2031, the global soybean industry is projected to reach a value of $278 billion, up from $155 billion today, according to an August 2024 article titled “The rise of Soybean in international commodity markets: A quantile investigation,” published in the open-access online journal Heliyon.

Yet global growth brings with it the reality of global complexity that can shape demand and prices for soybeans in a hurry. The Heliyon article analyzed the effect of shocks such as COVID, U.S.-China trade conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity prices.

“These events underscore the importance of understanding and managing interconnectedness and risk spillovers in an increasingly complex and unpredictable global market,” the authors note.

Prioritize Sustainability
Continuing investment in environmental stewardship amid a changing climate and severe weather risks also will bring added value for farmers. Countries around the world increasingly prioritize stewardship when procuring soybeans.

Among the recommendations of researchers in a February 2024 report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development titled “Soybean prices and sustainability” are:
• Improved crop production strategies
• Introduction of climate-resilient cultivars capable of handling extreme heat and water stress
• Boosted nutritional value and reduced input dependence via biotechnology solutions
• Diversified crop rotations
• Heightened soil fertility through reduced tillage and biologically sound management practices

Illinois Soy Looks Ahead
Several national and state-level initiatives aim to help Illinois soybean farmers meet the needs of the growing global middle class. For example, the U.S. Soy Sustainability Assurance Protocol (SSAP) provides customers with confidence, data, and insights on the sustainable production practices used to grow the soybeans they buy.

In Illinois, ISA’s Market Development team keeps track of metrics illustrating the inroads in reaching new and expanding markets. Among those metrics, available for review on ISA’s website, are:
• Increase Illinois soybean bushels exported to existing and new markets by 15 percent annually
• Establish 300 annual touchpoints with existing domestic and international buyers
• Establish 25 annual touchpoints with new domestic and international buyers

As more people around the world begin to experience new economic capacity and choice, ISA’s leadership and farmer-members will continue leading by example. This includes:
• On-farm hosting of international buyers to Illinois operations prioritizing the sustainable, high-quality product that international buyers demand
• Trade missions to emerging global markets to listen and better understand what’s needed to satisfy—and even exceed expectations—for Illinois soybean customers
• Continued investment in achieving the sustainability expectations of buyers
• Ongoing research to improve the quality and nutritional value of soybeans, among other customer-facing benefits

At the end of the day, the U.S. soybean industry can be confident in its approach to meeting the needs both of animal agriculture and of alternative protein providers. In turn, those buyers’ efforts will meet the growing middleclass appetite for high-quality protein.

“The soy checkoff partners with the American Soybean Association to support the U.S. Soybean Export Council to build customer preference, improve value and enable market access for U.S. Soy,” notes United Soybean Board on its website. “Progress made by these organizations affirms the U.S. soybean industry’s position as a preferred supplier despite increased global export options from other soybean-producing countries.”